Chicago Cubs at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Tucker BarnhartBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Hayden WesneskiPitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 5 K
Twins- Alex KirilloffBatting3-3, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Correa reached on infield single to shortstop, Gallo scored and Jeffers scored, Correa to second, Solano to second, Solano safe at third on throwing error by shortstop Mastrobuoni.1–11
- 8Correa reached on infield single to shortstop, Gallo scored and Jeffers scored, Correa to second, Solano to second, Solano safe at third on throwing error by shortstop Mastrobuoni.1–11
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–11
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–9
- 8Gallo doubled to right, Farmer scored, Jeffers to third.1–9
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 21–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–8
- 7Correa homered to left center (417 feet).1–8
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 21–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–7
- 7Barnhart singled to left, Morel scored, Hosmer to second.1–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–7
- 5Polanco homered to right (409 feet), Kirilloff scored.0–7
- 5Pitch 10 : Ball In Play0–7
- 5Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 5Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball 30–5
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 20–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 3Kirilloff homered to center (422 feet).0–5
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–5
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 10–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 3Gallo homered to right center (422 feet), Castro scored and Jeffers scored.0–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 54%
- Fair odds
- MIN -113
- CHC +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.1 – 4.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +5 | CHC: Hayden Wesneski: team allows 0.64 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +31 Elo | MIN 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 3.73rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.4 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 14th of 308–8 | Road vs home | 12–89th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 1–0 MIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.