Chicago Cubs at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Christopher MorelBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Astros- Alex BregmanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Bregman homered to left (366 feet), Dubón scored.4–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–6
- 4Morel homered to left center (401 feet), Mancini scored and Madrigal scored.4–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–4
- 4Gomes hit sacrifice fly to right, Bellinger scored.1–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 1McCormick doubled to left, Peña scored.0–4
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Peña singled to left, J. Abreu scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1J. Abreu doubled to left, Alvarez scored and Dubón scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 57%
- Fair odds
- HOU -116
- CHC +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.0 – 4.3 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | +6 | CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.88 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +47 Elo | HOU 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.73rd of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.69th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 22nd of 308–10 | Road vs home | 8–1123rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.