Chicago Cubs at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Christopher MorelBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Marcus StromanPitching2.2 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Twins- Trevor LarnachBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Louis VarlandPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Taylor homered to left center (393 feet), Vázquez scored.3–16
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–16
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–16
- 8Vázquez singled to right, Gordon scored.3–14
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–14
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–14
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking3–14
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 33–14
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–14
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–14
- 8Gordon doubled to left, Farmer scored.3–13
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–13
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–13
- 8Farmer singled to left, Larnach scored.3–12
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–12
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–12
- 8Larnach doubled to right, Polanco scored.3–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–11
- 8Correa grounded out to second, Kirilloff scored.3–10
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–10
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–9
- 7Farmer reached on infield single to second, Buxton scored, Polanco to third.3–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–8
- 7Madrigal singled to right, Mancini scored, Mervis to second.3–8
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–8
- 7Suzuki homered to left (366 feet).2–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 21–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–8
- 4Morel homered to left center (461 feet).1–8
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–8
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–8
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 49%
- Fair odds
- MIN -110
- CHC +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.1 – 4.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −16 | CHC: Marcus Stroman: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · MIN: Louis Varland: team allows 0.82 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +8 Elo | CHC 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 3.62nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.1 | Margin | +0.86th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 20th of 308–9 | Road vs home | 13–86th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 1–1 MIN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.