Chicago Cubs at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting3-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Drew SmylyPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Astros- Alex BregmanBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- J.P. FrancePitching3.2 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Tucker singled to center, Bregman scored and Peña scored, Alvarez to second.6–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging6–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 16–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–5
- 9Meyers homered to left (405 feet), Diaz scored.6–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 8J. Abreu singled to left, Bregman scored.6–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 16–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 8Bregman doubled to left, Peña scored.6–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 4Morel homered to center (402 feet).6–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–1
- 3Suzuki homered to left (371 feet), Happ scored.5–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 25–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 1Bregman homered to left (379 feet).3–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 33–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Suzuki homered to left (386 feet).3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Happ hit sacrifice fly to right, Swanson scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Swanson tripled to center, Morel scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 52%
- Fair odds
- HOU -114
- CHC +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.1 – 4.4 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −8 | CHC: Drew Smyly: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · HOU: J.P. France: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +12 Elo | HOU 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.72nd of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.77th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 24th of 308–12 | Road vs home | 10–1120th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 0–2 HOU in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.