Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Esteury RuizBatting2-4
- Ken WaldichukPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Astros- Kyle TuckerBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Brandon BielakPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bregman singled to left, Meyers scored, Altuve to second.1–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–5
- 6Tucker homered to right (361 feet), J. Abreu scored.1–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Tucker doubled to right, Alvarez scored, J. Abreu to third.1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3Langeliers doubled to center, Ruiz scored.1–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Peña grounded into fielder's choice to second, J. Abreu scored on throwing error by shortstop A. Díaz, Tucker out at second.0–1
- 2Peña grounded into fielder's choice to second, J. Abreu scored on throwing error by shortstop A. Díaz, Tucker out at second.0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 61%
- Fair odds
- HOU -130
- OAK +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.4 – 5.0 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1442 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −3 | OAK: Ken Waldichuk: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · HOU: Brandon Bielak: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +80 Elo | HOU 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 56.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 30th of 307.4 | Runs allowed | 3.72nd of 30 |
| 30th of 30−3.6 | Margin | +0.77th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 30th of 305–15 | Road vs home | 11–1119th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.