Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Seth BrownBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Kyle MullerPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Mariners- Jarred KelenicBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Raleigh grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Kelenic scored, Haggerty out at second.2–11
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–10
- 8Suárez singled to center, France scored and Rodríguez scored, Kelenic to third.2–10
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–10
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging2–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 32–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–8
- 8Brown grounded out to first, Noda scored.2–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 21–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–8
- 8Rooker grounded out to second, Ruiz scored, Noda to third.1–8
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 20–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–8
- 6Suárez reached on infield single to shortstop, France scored, Kelenic to second, Rodríguez to third.0–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–8
- 6Rodríguez doubled to left, Pollock scored, France to third.0–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
- 5Kelenic singled to center, Rodríguez scored.0–6
- 5Pitch 8 : Ball In Play0–6
- 5Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 30–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 20–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 2Caballero homered to left center (418 feet), Raleigh scored and Pollock scored.0–5
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–5
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 62%
- Fair odds
- SEA -129
- OAK +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.1 – 4.7 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1438 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −5 | OAK: Kyle Muller: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +87 Elo | SEA 62.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 56.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 30th of 307.2 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−3.5 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 30th of 305–18 | Road vs home | 10–1224th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OAK 0–3 SEA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.