Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Taylor TrammellBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Red Sox- Justin TurnerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Yoshida grounded out to first, McGuire scored, Verdugo to second, Reyes to third.4–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–8
- 7Duran singled to center, Verdugo scored, Turner to third.4–8
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–8
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 24–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 14–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–7
- 5Duran homered to center (417 feet).4–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–7
- 5Yoshida scored on Castillo wild pitch.4–6
- 5Yoshida scored on Castillo wild pitch.4–6
- 5Yoshida hit a ground rule double, Verdugo scored.4–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 34–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 24–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 4Trammell homered to right (376 feet), Hernández scored.4–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–4
- 4Hernández tripled to center, Suárez scored and Raleigh scored.2–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 1Casas homered to right (373 feet).0–4
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Turner homered to left center (389 feet), Yoshida scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Yoshida tripled to center, Verdugo scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 51%
- Fair odds
- BOS -110
- SEA +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.9 – 5.1 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +3 | SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · BOS: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +6 Elo | BOS 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.44th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 5.427th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.8 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 6th of 3011–8 | Road vs home | 13–1112th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 1–0 BOS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.