Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting3-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- George KirbyPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Red Sox- Rafael DeversBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Tanner HouckPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Pollock singled to left, Kelenic scored, Hernández to second, Suárez to third.10–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 210–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 110–1
- 8France doubled to left, Hernández scored, Wong to third.9–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul8–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging8–1
- 8Pollock singled to left, Raleigh scored, Hernández to second.8–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 17–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–1
- 8Suárez homered to center (434 feet), Kelenic scored.7–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 15–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–1
- 6Devers doubled to left, Duran scored.5–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 6Raleigh homered to left center (434 feet), Kelenic scored.5–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–0
- 6Kelenic grounded into fielder's choice to first, France scored, Rodríguez out at second.3–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 5Raleigh homered to right (438 feet), Suárez scored.2–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 51%
- Fair odds
- BOS -111
- SEA +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.8 – 5.0 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | 0 | SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · BOS: Tanner Houck: team allows 0.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +7 Elo | BOS 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.53rd of 30 |
| 4th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 5.227th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.315th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 6th of 3010–8 | Road vs home | 13–1012th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.