St. Louis Cardinals at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Nolan ArenadoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Steven MatzPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Red Sox- Rob RefsnyderBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Chris SalePitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Burleson grounded into fielder's choice to second, Contreras scored and Gorman scored on throwing error by shortstop Hernández, Burleson to second, Donovan out at second.4–3
- 9Burleson grounded into fielder's choice to second, Contreras scored and Gorman scored on throwing error by shortstop Hernández, Burleson to second, Donovan out at second.4–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 9Gorman doubled to right, Goldschmidt scored, Contreras to third.2–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 7Arenado homered to left center (414 feet).1–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 3Refsnyder doubled to center, Reyes scored and Verdugo scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Devers singled to left, Turner scored, Devers out stretching at second.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 59%
- Fair odds
- BOS -122
- STL +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 5.0 – 5.4 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +9 | STL: Steven Matz: team allows 0.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · BOS: Chris Sale: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +62 Elo | BOS 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.73rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 5.227th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.511th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 25th of 308–12 | Road vs home | 13–87th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 1–0 BOS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.