St. Louis Cardinals at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Nolan ArenadoBatting4-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Adam WainwrightPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Red Sox- Enmanuel ValdezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- James PaxtonPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Gorman homered to right (400 feet), Nootbaar scored.8–6
- 9Pitch 8 : Ball In Play8–6
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball 36–6
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul6–6
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging6–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 26–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 18–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–6
- 9Nootbaar singled to center, DeJong scored.6–6
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–6
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking5–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–6
- 8Tapia grounded out to second, Dalbec scored.5–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 8Devers hit a ground rule double, Yoshida scored, Turner to third.5–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 25–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 6Nootbaar doubled to left, Donovan scored.5–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 24–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 6DeJong grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Arenado scored, Carlson out at second, Donovan to third.4–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 6Contreras homered to right center (408 feet).3–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 5Wong homered to center (420 feet).2–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 5Valdez homered to right (381 feet).2–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 58%
- Fair odds
- BOS -122
- STL +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.9 – 5.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −2 | STL: Adam Wainwright: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · BOS: James Paxton (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +56 Elo | BOS 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.73rd of 30 |
| 24th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 5.127th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 26th of 307–12 | Road vs home | 13–76th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.