St. Louis Cardinals at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Nolan ArenadoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 0 K
Red Sox- Rafael DeversBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Corey KluberPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Arenado homered to center (396 feet), Gorman scored.9–1
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play9–1
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 27–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 8Gorman hit a ground rule double, Nootbaar scored.7–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 6Arenado singled to center, Knizner scored and Nootbaar scored, Gorman to second.6–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 4Knizner homered to center (432 feet), Burleson scored.4–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 2DeJong homered to center (425 feet).2–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 31–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Devers singled to right, Verdugo scored.1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 1Goldschmidt singled to right, Nootbaar scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 53%
- Fair odds
- BOS -117
- STL +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.9 – 5.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −13 | STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · BOS: Corey Kluber: team allows 0.63 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +21 Elo | BOS 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.63rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 5.227th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.512th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–43rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 309–12 | Road vs home | 13–910th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 2–0 BOS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.