Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Jose CaballeroBatting1-2, 1 RBI
- Chris FlexenPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Red Sox- Justin TurnerBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Rodríguez grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Caballero scored and Haggerty scored on throwing error by second baseman Reyes, France out at second, Rodríguez to second.3–12
- 6Rodríguez grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Caballero scored and Haggerty scored on throwing error by second baseman Reyes, France out at second, Rodríguez to second.3–12
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–12
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–12
- 5Hernández hit sacrifice fly to center, Devers scored.1–12
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–12
- 5Yoshida grounded out to second, Refsnyder scored, Devers to third.1–11
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–11
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–10
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–10
- 5Devers doubled to right, Turner scored, Refsnyder to third.1–10
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–10
- 4Caballero reached on infield single to second, Raleigh scored.1–9
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–9
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–9
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–9
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–9
- 2Duran singled to center, Reyes scored.0–9
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–9
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 30–8
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–8
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–8
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–8
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–8
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–8
- 2Reyes doubled to center, Hernández scored and Yoshida scored.0–8
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–8
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–6
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 2Hernández singled to right, Refsnyder scored, Yoshida to second.0–6
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–6
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–5
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 2Turner homered to left (358 feet), Verdugo scored.0–5
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–5
- 1Reyes doubled to left, Refsnyder scored and Devers scored, Yoshida to third.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 54%
- Fair odds
- BOS -113
- SEA +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.9 – 5.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +1 | SEA: Marco Gonzales: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +25 Elo | BOS 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.53rd of 30 |
| 4th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 5.327th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 6th of 3011–9 | Road vs home | 14–1113th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 1–1 BOS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.