Seattle Mariners at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Teoscar HernandezBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ozuna singled to left, Murphy scored and Riley scored, Albies to third.2–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–6
- 8Olson homered to right center (398 feet).2–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 7Arcia singled to right, Albies scored, Ozuna to third.2–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 7Ozuna singled to right, Rosario scored, Albies to third.2–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 7Hernández singled to right, Kelenic scored, Suárez to second.2–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 7Suárez singled to left, Rodríguez scored, Kelenic to second.1–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Olson doubled to right, Acuña Jr. scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 54%
- Fair odds
- ATL -117
- SEA +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.5 – 4.8 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +6 | SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +31 Elo | ATL 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.35th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.94th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +1.43rd of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 7th of 3011–10 | Road vs home | 10–916th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.