Seattle Mariners at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Jarred KelenicBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- George KirbyPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Braves- Travis d'ArnaudBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jared ShusterPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Caballero homered to left (391 feet).2–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 31–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 6d'Arnaud homered to left center (419 feet).1–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Rosario singled to center, Olson scored, d'Arnaud to second.1–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 2Kelenic homered to right center (394 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 1Olson doubled to right, Acuña Jr. scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 52%
- Fair odds
- ATL -115
- SEA +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.3 – 4.6 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −11 | SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · ATL: Jared Shuster: team allows 0.55 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +13 Elo | ATL 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.35th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.94th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +1.43rd of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 10th of 3012–11 | Road vs home | 11–1016th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 1–1 ATL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.