Seattle Mariners at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Eugenio SuarezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jesse ChavezPitching2.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Riley hit sacrifice fly to right, Acuña Jr. scored.7–3
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play7–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 27–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 17–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–2
- 7Suárez homered to center (432 feet), Rodríguez scored.7–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–2
- 5Hernández singled to right, Kelenic scored.5–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–2
- 5Suárez hit sacrifice fly to left, Rodríguez scored.4–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 13–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 4Crawford singled to right, Hernández scored, Trammell to second, Trammell safe at third on fielding error by right fielder Acuña Jr..3–2
- 4Crawford singled to right, Hernández scored, Trammell to second, Trammell safe at third on fielding error by right fielder Acuña Jr..3–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 4Caballero hit sacrifice fly to left, Suárez scored, Hernández to third.2–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 4Trammell singled to right, Kelenic scored, Hernández to second, Suárez to third.1–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Olson homered to center (405 feet), Acuña Jr. scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 54%
- Fair odds
- ATL -117
- SEA +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.3 – 4.7 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −15 | SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · ATL: Jesse Chavez (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +26 Elo | ATL 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.35th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.84th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +1.53rd of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 11th of 3011–11 | Road vs home | 11–914th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 0–1 ATL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.