Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Seth BrownBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- JP SearsPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Mariners- Ty FranceBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching8.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Suárez walked, France scored, Kelenic to second, Rodríguez to third.2–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 42–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 32–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 6France homered to left (380 feet).2–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 1France homered to left (378 feet).2–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Brown homered to right center (389 feet), Noda scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 62%
- Fair odds
- SEA -131
- OAK +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.1 – 4.7 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1433 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +2 | OAK: JP Sears: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +84 Elo | SEA 61.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 56.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 30th of 307.1 | Runs allowed | 3.94th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−3.6 | Margin | +0.78th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 30th of 305–21 | Road vs home | 13–1219th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OAK 0–6 SEA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.