Pittsburgh Pirates at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Jack SuwinskiBatting3-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 8 K
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- George KirbyPitching4.2 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Reynolds homered to right (403 feet).11–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play11–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 310–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 210–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul10–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 110–6
- 7Crawford homered to right (393 feet), Wong scored.10–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play10–6
- 7Marcano homered to right (377 feet).10–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking9–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 19–4
- 7Suwinski homered to right center (445 feet).9–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 18–4
- 6Reynolds singled to left, Bae scored.8–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking7–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging7–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 27–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 17–4
- 5Rodríguez singled to center, Crawford scored and Wong scored, France to third.7–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–4
- 5Hayes homered to left (353 feet).7–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 26–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging6–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 5Suwinski homered to center (417 feet), Reynolds scored.6–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 5Reynolds tripled to left, Hedges scored and McCutchen scored.4–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 4Santana homered to right (351 feet).2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 53%
- Fair odds
- SEA -112
- PIT +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.8 – 4.1 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | +11 | PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.80 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +22 Elo | SEA 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.84th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.78th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 8th of 3013–11 | Road vs home | 14–1217th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.