Texas Rangers at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Josh JungBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching9.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Pirates- Andrew McCutchenBatting2-3
- Rich HillPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Jung homered to left (444 feet).6–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 6Jung scored on a balk, Grossman to second on a balk.5–1
- 6Jung scored on a balk, Grossman to second on a balk.5–1
- 6Jung singled to center, Lowe scored and García scored.4–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 3Reynolds doubled to center, McCutchen scored.2–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 12–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Seager scored on a balk, Lowe to second on a balk.2–0
- 1Seager scored on a balk, Lowe to second on a balk.2–0
- 1Seager reached on infield single to shortstop, Semien scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 49%
- Fair odds
- PIT -105
- TEX +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.5 – 4.6 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +9 | TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · PIT: Rich Hill: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +10 Elo | TEX 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 306.4 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+2.3 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 5th of 3013–10 | Road vs home | 12–1117th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 0–1 PIT in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.