Texas Rangers at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Pirates- Jason DelayBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Johan OviedoPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 2Delay singled to center, Joe scored, Castro to third.3–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 2Suwinski grounded out to first, Santana scored, Castro to second, Joe to third.3–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 33–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Heim grounded into fielder's choice to first, García scored, Jung third.3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 1Jung doubled to left, Lowe scored, García to third.2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Semien homered to left (372 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 48%
- Fair odds
- PIT -104
- TEX +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.5 – 4.5 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −8 | TEX: Martin Perez: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · PIT: Johan Oviedo: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +14 Elo | TEX 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 306.4 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+2.3 | Margin | +0.314th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 5th of 3014–10 | Road vs home | 12–1218th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 1–1 PIT in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.