Pittsburgh Pirates at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Tucupita MarcanoBatting1-4
- Jose HernandezPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Mariners- Ty FranceBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 7Suárez hit sacrifice fly to center, Rodríguez scored.0–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 2Rodríguez doubled to center, Crawford scored, France to third.0–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 1Hernández doubled to left, Suárez scored, Raleigh to third.0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Suárez singled to right, France scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1France doubled to left, Crawford scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 51%
- Fair odds
- SEA -109
- PIT +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.1 – 4.3 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | −1 | PIT: Vince Velasquez: team allows 0.77 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +5 Elo | SEA 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.04th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 8th of 3014–11 | Road vs home | 14–1318th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 1–0 SEA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.