Texas Rangers at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Orioles- Austin HaysBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Urías doubled to left, Mountcastle scored.5–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking5–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 9Mountcastle doubled to center, Hays scored.5–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging5–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 8Heim scored on error, J. Smith safe at first on error by pitcher Akin.5–1
- 8Heim scored on error, J. Smith safe at first on error by pitcher Akin.5–1
- 8Heim scored on error, J. Smith safe at first on error by pitcher Akin.5–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 7Hays homered to center (411 feet).4–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 7Semien singled to left, Grossman scored and Taveras scored, Semien to second.4–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 4Heim singled to center, Jung scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Grossman singled to right, García scored, Heim to second.1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 51%
- Fair odds
- BAL -111
- TEX +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.6 – 4.8 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +1 | TEX: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +9 Elo | BAL 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 306.4 | Runs scored | 5.16th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.411th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+2.4 | Margin | +0.77th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 3016–10 | Road vs home | 15–94th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 2–2 BAL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.