Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Anthony SantanderBatting3-3, 1 RBI
- Kyle GibsonPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Yankees- Willie CalhounBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Clarke SchmidtPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Calhoun doubled to center, Judge scored.3–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 8Hays doubled to right, Henderson scored and Santander scored.3–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 5Santander singled to right, Frazier scored.1–0
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 31–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 50%
- Fair odds
- NYY -107
- BAL +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.5 – 4.7 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −6 | BAL: Kyle Gibson: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · NYY: Clarke Schmidt: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +2 Elo | BAL 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.712th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.610th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 3017–9 | Road vs home | 17–116th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 2–3 NYY in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.