New York Yankees at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Anthony RizzoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jhony BritoPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Reds- Luke MaileBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luke WeaverPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Rizzo homered to right (363 feet), Judge scored.7–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–4
- 10Judge singled to left, Allen scored.5–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–4
- 5Rizzo singled to right, Torres scored, Judge thrown out at home.4–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 5Judge doubled to left, Rortvedt scored, Torres to third.3–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–4
- 5Kiner-Falefa homered to left (368 feet).2–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 21–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 4Maile homered to left center (398 feet), Barrero scored.1–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 3Steer reached on infield single to shortstop, India scored, Fraley to second, McLain to third.1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Automatic Strike 11–1
- 3Judge singled to left, Rortvedt scored.1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Fraley singled to center, McLain scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 47%
- Fair odds
- CIN -102
- NYY +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.7 – 4.8 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −9 | NYY: Jhony Brito: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · CIN: Luke Weaver: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +24 Elo | NYY 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.225th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.825th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 10th of 3011–10 | Road vs home | 12–1016th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 1–0 CIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.