New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting2-2, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Jhony BritoPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Blue Jays- Bo BichetteBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Alek ManoahPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Guerrero Jr. doubled to left, Springer scored, Bichette to third.7–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–4
- 8Bichette singled to right, Belt scored, Springer to third.7–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging7–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–2
- 8Springer grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Merrifield scored, Kiermaier out at second, Belt to third.7–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 37–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 27–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 8Merrifield singled to left, Chapman scored.7–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–0
- 8Judge homered to center (462 feet).7–0
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–0
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 36–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 26–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking6–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 16–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 6Rizzo doubled to center, Bauers scored, Judge to third.6–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 4Judge walked, Cabrera scored, Hicks to second, Higashioka to third.5–0
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball 45–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 34–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 24–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 4Higashioka singled to right, Volpe scored, Cabrera to third.4–0
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 13–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 54%
- Fair odds
- TOR -114
- NYY +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.1 – 4.4 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | −9 | NYY: Jimmy Cordero (no track record yet) · TOR: Alek Manoah: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +31 Elo | TOR 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–43rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 307–9 | Road vs home | 12–32nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 1–2 TOR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.