Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Taylor WallsBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Zach EflinPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 9 K
Yankees- Oswaldo CabreraBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Clarke SchmidtPitching4.2 IP, 7 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Volpe homered to left center (394 feet), Bader scored.8–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking8–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 18–5
- 7Judge singled to center, Cabrera scored, Torres to second.8–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 28–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 18–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–4
- 5Walls homered to right center (387 feet), Franco scored, B. Lowe scored and J. Lowe scored.8–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 5Arozarena hit sacrifice fly to center, Paredes scored, Franco to third.4–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 3Rizzo homered to right (351 feet), Bauers scored.3–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 3Cabrera homered to right center (355 feet), Trevino scored.3–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 23–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 3B. Lowe hit sacrifice fly to center, Paredes scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 12–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 3Paredes singled to center, Siri scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 45%
- Fair odds
- NYY -101
- TB +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.3 – 4.3 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −9 | TB: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · NYY: Clarke Schmidt: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +35 Elo | TB 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 306.1 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.2 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+2.9 | Margin | +0.413th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 5th of 3011–8 | Road vs home | 16–96th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 3–3 NYY in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.