Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Josh LoweBatting2-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Drew RasmussenPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Yankees- Gleyber TorresBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Domingo GermanPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Torres singled to center, Calhoun scored and Rizzo scored, LeMahieu to second.8–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking8–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking8–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–2
- 8Paredes doubled to right, Mejía scored.8–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 28–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 18–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–0
- 8J. Lowe homered to center (435 feet), Margot scored.7–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–0
- 7Walls doubled to right, Arozarena scored, B. Lowe to third.5–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 24–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 14–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 6J. Lowe doubled to center, Margot scored, Walls scored and Raley scored.4–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 5Díaz doubled to left, J. Lowe scored.1–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 49%
- Fair odds
- NYY -103
- TB +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.1 – 4.2 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +2 | TB: Drew Rasmussen: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · NYY: Domingo German: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +8 Elo | TB 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 306.1 | Runs scored | 4.413th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.1 | Runs allowed | 3.97th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+3.0 | Margin | +0.610th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3010–6 | Road vs home | 14–87th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 2–1 NYY in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.