Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Shane McClanahanPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Nestor CortesPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Arozarena singled to center, Mejía scored and Díaz scored.8–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 16–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–9
- 6Cabrera singled to right, LeMahieu scored and Rizzo scored, Bader to third.6–9
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–9
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 26–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–7
- 6Judge homered to left (439 feet), Torres scored.6–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 16–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–5
- 6Volpe scored on Thompson wild pitch.6–5
- 6Volpe scored on Thompson wild pitch.6–5
- 5Judge homered to right center (382 feet), Torres scored.6–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 5Higashioka homered to left (379 feet), Bauers scored.6–2
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 26–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 16–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 5Arozarena reached on infield single to third, Franco scored.6–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–0
- 5Díaz homered to left center (425 feet), Margot scored, Siri scored and Mejía scored.5–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 2Walls singled to left, Arozarena scored, Paredes to second.1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 58%
- Fair odds
- TB -102
- NYY +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.2 – 4.2 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +23 | −15 | TB: Shane McClanahan: team allows 1.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · NYY: Nestor Cortes: team allows 0.75 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +58 Elo | TB 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 306.1 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.1 | Runs allowed | 4.08th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+3.0 | Margin | +0.413th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 4th of 3011–7 | Road vs home | 15–96th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 3–2 NYY in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.