Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Josh LoweBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Josh FlemingPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Yankees- Anthony RizzoBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Gerrit ColePitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rizzo homered to right center (398 feet), Judge scored.5–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–6
- 8J. Lowe homered to left (378 feet), Ramírez scored and Paredes scored.5–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 7Cabrera singled to right, Bauers scored, Cabrera thrown out at second, Volpe to third.2–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 7Volpe singled to left, Bader scored, Bauers to second.2–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Volpe homered to right center (373 feet).2–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 32–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 2Siri homered to left (394 feet).2–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Rizzo homered to right (348 feet).1–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Arozarena homered to left (422 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 51%
- Fair odds
- NYY -103
- TB +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.1 – 4.2 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | +12 | TB: Trevor Kelley (no track record yet) · NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +5 Elo | NYY 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 306.1 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.0 | Runs allowed | 4.08th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+3.1 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3011–6 | Road vs home | 14–99th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 3–1 NYY in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.