New York Yankees at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Anthony RizzoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Clarke SchmidtPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Reds- Jake FraleyBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Ben LivelyPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bader singled to center, Higashioka scored, LeMahieu to third.6–2
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging5–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 35–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 25–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 9Higashioka doubled to left, Cabrera scored and Torres scored.5–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 6Fraley doubled to center, India scored and McLain scored.3–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 33–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball 13–0
- 6Rizzo homered to right (424 feet), Judge scored.3–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Judge homered to center (431 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 50%
- Fair odds
- CIN -105
- NYY +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.8 – 4.9 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −7 | NYY: Clarke Schmidt: team allows 0.61 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · CIN: Ben Lively (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | NYY 0 Elo | NYY 50.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.126th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.825th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 10th of 3010–10 | Road vs home | 12–912th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.