New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting1-3
- Gerrit ColePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Blue Jays- Danny JansenBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 10Jansen homered to left center (414 feet), Biggio scored and Merrifield scored.0–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 52%
- Fair odds
- TOR -111
- NYY +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.3 – 4.6 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +10 | NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +17 Elo | TOR 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 11th of 309–9 | Road vs home | 12–53rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 3–2 TOR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.