New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Domingo GermanPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Blue Jays- Kevin KiermaierBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9Torres hit sacrifice fly to right, Kiner-Falefa scored.6–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking5–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–3
- 8Judge homered to center (448 feet), Hicks scored.5–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 5Guerrero Jr. singled to center, Bichette scored.3–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Bichette doubled to left, Springer scored.3–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 5Kiermaier homered to center (407 feet).3–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 5Kiner-Falefa homered to right (346 feet).3–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Bader grounded into double play, shortstop to first to first to third, Trevino scored, Torres thrown out at third.2–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 3Torres singled to center, Kiner-Falefa scored, Trevino to second.1–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 54%
- Fair odds
- TOR -113
- NYY +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.3 – 4.6 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +2 | NYY: Domingo German: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +27 Elo | TOR 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.811th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 18th of 308–9 | Road vs home | 12–42nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 2–2 TOR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.