New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nestor CortesPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Blue Jays- Bo BichetteBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Volpe homered to left (364 feet).4–2
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 33–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 23–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 7Guerrero Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Merrifield scored.3–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 7Hicks singled to center, Cabrera scored.3–1
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 32–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 1Bichette homered to left center (399 feet).2–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Judge homered to center (430 feet), Torres scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 55%
- Fair odds
- TOR -114
- NYY +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.2 – 4.4 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | −2 | NYY: Nestor Cortes: team allows 0.88 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +37 Elo | TOR 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.712th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.49th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 16th of 309–10 | Road vs home | 13–52nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 3–3 TOR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.