Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Ryan O'HearnBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Grayson RodriguezPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Alek ManoahPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Hays grounded into fielder's choice to third, Mountcastle scored.6–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 8O'Hearn homered to right center (406 feet), Mountcastle scored and Frazier scored.5–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–5
- 7Kirk singled to center, Springer scored, Guerrero Jr. to second.2–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 7Springer reached on infield single to second, Merrifield scored.2–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 6Jansen homered to left (378 feet).2–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 5Springer homered to left (368 feet), Espinal scored.2–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Mullins homered to right (354 feet).2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 2O'Hearn singled to right, Frazier scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 51%
- Fair odds
- TOR -107
- BAL +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.2 – 4.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | −14 | BAL: Grayson Rodriguez: team allows 0.75 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · TOR: Alek Manoah: team allows 0.71 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +6 Elo | TOR 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3014–8 | Road vs home | 13–74th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 1–0 TOR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.