Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Mike TroutBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Griffin CanningPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Orioles- Austin HaysBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle BradishPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5Hays homered to right center (369 feet).1–3
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 31–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 21–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 4Mullins singled to right, Vavra scored.1–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 4Trout homered to center (396 feet).1–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 3Mountcastle singled to left, Mullins scored.0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 56%
- Fair odds
- BAL -117
- LAA +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.4 – 4.8 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +6 | LAA: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · BAL: Kyle Bradish: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +39 Elo | BAL 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 5.08th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.77th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 11th of 3012–12 | Road vs home | 14–74th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 1–1 BAL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.