Los Angeles Angels at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Mickey MoniakBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Reid DetmersPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Guardians- Josh NaylorBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Giménez homered to right (364 feet).6–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–7
- 8Naylor homered to right center (376 feet), Ramírez scored and Freeman scored.6–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 8Bell singled to right, Rosario scored, Ramírez to third.6–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–3
- 8Ramírez singled to right, Kwan scored, Rosario to third.6–3
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball In Play6–3
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball 36–2
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 26–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging6–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 8Neto homered to left center (380 feet), Thaiss scored.6–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 7Rengifo singled to right, Moniak scored on error, Rengifo safe at second on throwing error by right fielder Arias.4–2
- 7Rengifo singled to right, Moniak scored on error, Rengifo safe at second on throwing error by right fielder Arias.4–2
- 7Rengifo singled to right, Moniak scored on error, Rengifo safe at second on throwing error by right fielder Arias.4–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 6Rosario scored on Devenski wild pitch.3–2
- 6Rosario scored on Devenski wild pitch.3–2
- 6Rosario doubled to left, Kwan scored.3–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 23–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 13–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 3Rendon hit sacrifice fly to center, Trout scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 55%
- Fair odds
- CLE -109
- LAA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.9 – 4.1 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | +15 | LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.84 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CLE: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.76 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +32 Elo | CLE 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.430th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.723rd of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 7th of 3011–9 | Road vs home | 7–1225th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 1–0 CLE in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.