Los Angeles Angels at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Anthony RendonBatting3-5
- Tyler AndersonPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Guardians- Josh NaylorBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan AllenPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Drury hit sacrifice fly to center, Phillips scored.5–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 9Renfroe grounded into fielder's choice to second, Trout scored on error, Phillips to second, Phillips safe at third on throwing error by second baseman Giménez.4–4
- 9Renfroe grounded into fielder's choice to second, Trout scored on error, Phillips to second, Phillips safe at third on throwing error by second baseman Giménez.4–4
- 9Renfroe grounded into fielder's choice to second, Trout scored on error, Phillips to second, Phillips safe at third on throwing error by second baseman Giménez.4–4
- 9Pitch 9 : Ball In Play4–4
- 9Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 9Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging3–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 23–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 8Naylor homered to right center (442 feet).3–4
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 33–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 23–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 5Bell grounded into fielder's choice to third, Kwan scored, Rosario out at second.3–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 4Neto singled to left, Urshela scored, Neto to second, Thaiss to third.3–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 4Urshela doubled to center, Drury scored.2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 4Drury singled to left, Rendon scored.1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 2Straw hit sacrifice fly to center, Naylor scored, Giménez to second.0–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 50%
- Fair odds
- CLE -107
- LAA +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.8 – 4.0 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −8 | LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +1 Elo | CLE 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.430th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.723rd of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 11th of 3010–9 | Road vs home | 7–1125th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.