Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Shohei OhtaniBatting4-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Shohei OhtaniPitching7.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Orioles- Anthony SantanderBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Grayson RodriguezPitching3.1 IP, 8 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 5Mullins homered to right center (408 feet).9–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 29–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 19–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–4
- 5Renfroe doubled to left, Ohtani scored.9–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 18–4
- 4Thaiss doubled to center, Renfroe scored.8–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–4
- 4Ohtani homered to right center (456 feet), Ward scored and Trout scored.7–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–4
- 4Wallach homered to right center (365 feet).4–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 33–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 23–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 3Santander homered to center (416 feet), Rutschman scored.3–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 3Urshela doubled to left, Thaiss scored and Ohtani scored.3–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 2Frazier homered to right (382 feet), Henderson scored.1–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 2Neto hit sacrifice fly to center, Rengifo scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 52%
- Fair odds
- BAL -115
- LAA +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.2 – 4.5 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | −6 | LAA: Shohei Ohtani: team allows 0.77 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · BAL: Grayson Rodriguez: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +12 Elo | BAL 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 5.08th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.86th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–43rd of 30 |
| 13th of 3011–11 | Road vs home | 13–64th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.