Los Angeles Angels at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Taylor WardBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Patrick SandovalPitching7.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Guardians- Josh NaylorBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching7.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ward grounded into fielder's choice to third, Moniak scored, Ohtani out at third.3–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 9Ohtani singled to center, Neto scored, Moniak to third.2–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 8Naylor homered to right (360 feet), Straw scored and Ramírez scored.1–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 21–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball 11–1
- 8Urshela hit into fielder's choice to right, Ward scored, Thaiss out at second.1–1
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 31–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 2Naylor scored on error, Brennan safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Neto, Brennan out at second on runner's fielder's choice, Giménez safe at third on error.0–1
- 2Naylor scored on error, Brennan safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Neto, Brennan out at second on runner's fielder's choice, Giménez safe at third on error.0–1
- 2Naylor scored on error, Brennan safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Neto, Brennan out at second on runner's fielder's choice, Giménez safe at third on error.0–1
- 2Naylor scored on error, Brennan safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Neto, Brennan out at second on runner's fielder's choice, Giménez safe at third on error.0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 49%
- Fair odds
- CLE -106
- LAA +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.0 – 4.1 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −4 | LAA: Patrick Sandoval: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +9 Elo | LAA 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 3.528th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.622nd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 12th of 3011–10 | Road vs home | 8–1224th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 1–1 CLE in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.