Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Mickey MoniakBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chase SilsethPitching3.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Orioles- Ryan MountcastleBatting2-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Mountcastle homered to center (433 feet), McKenna scored.3–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–7
- 6Mateo hit sacrifice fly to center, Frazier scored.3–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 6Urshela singled to right, Thaiss scored, Drury to second.3–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 5Neto singled to center, Urshela scored.2–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Mullins grounded out to second, Mateo scored, Mountcastle to third.1–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 4Mateo singled to right, Vavra scored.1–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 11–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 4Vavra singled to right, Henderson scored.1–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 31–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 2O'Hearn homered to right (376 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 1Moniak homered to right center (408 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 55%
- Fair odds
- BAL -116
- LAA +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.4 – 4.7 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −1 | LAA: Chase Silseth (no track record yet) · BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +37 Elo | BAL 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 5.08th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.69th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 12th of 3012–11 | Road vs home | 13–74th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 1–0 BAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.