Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Mike TroutBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Orioles- Adley RutschmanBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler WellsPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ohtani reached on infield single to first, Neto scored, Trout to second, Urshela to third.6–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–5
- 8Urshela singled to center, Rengifo scored, Neto to third.5–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–5
- 7Rutschman homered to right (424 feet), Hays scored.4–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 24–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 6Neto singled to right, Rengifo scored, Neto to second.4–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 5Santander homered to left center (418 feet), Hays scored.3–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 5Mountcastle hit sacrifice fly to left, Ortiz scored, Hays to third.3–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 3Trout homered to left center (408 feet), Soto scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 1Ohtani homered to right center (378 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 57%
- Fair odds
- BAL -120
- LAA +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.3 – 4.7 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +11 | LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · BAL: Tyler Wells: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +52 Elo | BAL 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 5.08th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 13th of 3012–13 | Road vs home | 15–74th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 1–2 BAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.