Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Ryan MountcastleBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kyle GibsonPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Blue Jays- Danny JansenBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Frazier homered to right (351 feet), Mateo scored.6–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 8Bichette grounded out to second, Kiermaier scored, Springer to third.4–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 6Santander homered to right (347 feet).4–1
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 33–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking3–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 3Mountcastle homered to center (419 feet), Ortiz scored and Rutschman scored.3–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 2Jansen singled to center, Belt scored, Merrifield to second.0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 52%
- Fair odds
- TOR -108
- BAL +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.3 – 4.4 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +7 | BAL: Kyle Gibson: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · TOR: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +15 Elo | TOR 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3013–8 | Road vs home | 13–63rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.