Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Adam FrazierBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tyler WellsPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 K
Yankees- Gleyber TorresBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Nestor CortesPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Rizzo singled to left, Calhoun scored, Judge to second, Torres to third.9–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–6
- 7Hays singled to left, Santander scored.9–5
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play9–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 38–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging8–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 28–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 18–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging8–5
- 7Santander singled to center, Rutschman scored on error, Santander safe at second on throwing error by center fielder Bader.8–5
- 7Santander singled to center, Rutschman scored on error, Santander safe at second on throwing error by center fielder Bader.8–5
- 7Santander singled to center, Rutschman scored on error, Santander safe at second on throwing error by center fielder Bader.8–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 17–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–5
- 7Mountcastle hit sacrifice fly to right, Henderson scored on error, Rutschman safe at second on throwing error by right fielder Judge.7–5
- 7Mountcastle hit sacrifice fly to right, Henderson scored on error, Rutschman safe at second on throwing error by right fielder Judge.7–5
- 7Mountcastle hit sacrifice fly to right, Henderson scored on error, Rutschman safe at second on throwing error by right fielder Judge.7–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–5
- 7Henderson doubled to right, Mateo scored and McCann scored.6–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 7Frazier homered to right (352 feet), Santander scored and Hays scored.4–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–5
- 5Torres homered to left (356 feet).1–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 21–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 5Kiner-Falefa homered to left center (389 feet), Volpe scored.1–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 4Mountcastle homered to center (426 feet).1–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 20–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 10–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 50%
- Fair odds
- NYY -107
- BAL +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.4 – 4.5 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −10 | BAL: Tyler Wells: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · NYY: Nestor Cortes: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +3 Elo | BAL 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.05th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 2nd of 3016–9 | Road vs home | 17–105th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 1–3 NYY in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.