Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Cedric MullinsBatting5-6, 3 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Blue Jays- Matt ChapmanBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching8.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 11Mullins doubled to center, Henderson scored and Vavra scored.8–3
- 11Pitch 7 : Ball In Play8–3
- 11Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 11Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging6–3
- 11Pitch 4 : Ball 36–3
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball 26–3
- 11Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 11Vavra singled to center, Frazier scored and Hays scored, Henderson to second.6–3
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–3
- 11Hays singled to center, McKenna scored, Frazier to second.4–3
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 11Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 10Merrifield singled to center, Varsho scored.3–3
- 10Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–3
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball 33–2
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–2
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 23–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 10Mullins singled to right, Mateo scored.3–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 7Chapman hit sacrifice fly to left, Springer scored.2–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 22–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 3Santander grounded into fielder's choice to first, Mullins scored.2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Rutschman grounded out to second, Ortiz scored, Mullins to third.1–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Chapman homered to center (420 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 50%
- Fair odds
- TOR -106
- BAL +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.2 – 4.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −2 | BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +1 Elo | TOR 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.314th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3015–8 | Road vs home | 13–86th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 2–0 TOR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.