Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle BradishPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Yankees- Harrison BaderBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Gerrit ColePitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 10Volpe hit sacrifice fly to center, Kiner-Falefa scored.5–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–6
- 9Judge homered to left center (403 feet).5–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 6Vavra grounded out to first, Mountcastle scored, Henderson to second, Frazier to third.5–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 5Bader hit sacrifice fly to left, Rizzo scored.4–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 24–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 5LeMahieu singled to left, Torres scored, Rizzo to third.4–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 5Rizzo doubled to right, Cabrera scored, Torres to third.4–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Bader homered to right center (370 feet).4–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 4Henderson homered to center (404 feet).4–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 3Mullins homered to right center (373 feet).3–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Frazier doubled to right, Mountcastle scored and Santander scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 52%
- Fair odds
- NYY -108
- BAL +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.4 – 4.6 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +14 | BAL: Kyle Bradish: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 0.68 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +14 Elo | NYY 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 3016–8 | Road vs home | 16–105th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 1–2 NYY in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.