Texas Rangers at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Jon GrayPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Orioles- Adley RutschmanBatting3-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Austin VothPitching3.2 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Taveras singled to right, J. Smith scored, Miller to third.12–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play12–2
- 9Miller doubled to right, Jung scored, J. Smith to third.11–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play11–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 311–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking11–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 211–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 111–2
- 8Vavra reached on infield single to shortstop, O'Hearn scored, Rutschman to second.10–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play10–2
- 4Jung singled to center, Lowe scored.10–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play10–1
- 4Seager homered to center (437 feet), Taveras scored, León scored and Semien scored.9–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–1
- 4Grossman homered to right center (396 feet), J. Smith scored.5–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–1
- 4J. Smith singled to right, Jung scored.3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Taveras homered to right (381 feet), Grossman scored.2–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Rutschman homered to right (367 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 48%
- Fair odds
- BAL -109
- TEX +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.4 – 4.6 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −16 | TEX: Jon Gray: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · BAL: Grayson Rodriguez: team allows 0.78 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +13 Elo | TEX 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 306.3 | Runs scored | 5.16th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+2.3 | Margin | +0.95th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 3015–10 | Road vs home | 15–84th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 1–2 BAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.