Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Josh JungBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Tigers- Andy IbanezBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Alex FaedoPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lowe scored, Jankowski safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Báez, Heim to second, García to third.10–6
- 9Lowe scored, Jankowski safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Báez, Heim to second, García to third.10–6
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play10–6
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul9–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 29–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking9–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking9–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 19–6
- 7Jung homered to left center (429 feet), García scored.9–6
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball In Play9–6
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul7–6
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul7–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 37–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 27–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–6
- 5Cabrera doubled to left, Schoop scored.7–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 17–5
- 5Ibañez homered to left (398 feet).7–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–5
- 5Heim singled to right, Lowe scored and García scored.7–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 25–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 5Lowe singled to left, Semien scored.5–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–4
- 4Short reached on infield single to shortstop, Cabrera scored, Rogers to second.4–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 4Jankowski doubled to right, Grossman scored and Jung scored, Jankowski thrown out at third.4–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 12–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 4Heim grounded out to shortstop, García scored, Jung to third.2–3
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 57%
- Fair odds
- TEX -101
- DET +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.7 – 4.7 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −12 | TEX: Martin Perez: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · DET: Alex Faedo: team allows 0.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +49 Elo | TEX 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 306.3 | Runs scored | 3.828th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.822nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30+2.4 | Margin | −1.028th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 4th of 3018–11 | Road vs home | 13–1218th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 1–0 DET in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.