Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Gavin SheetsBatting1-3, 3 RBI
- Jesse ScholtensPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Tigers- Zach McKinstryBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Short homered to left center (416 feet), Schoop scored.3–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 33–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 7Haase singled to center, Torkelson scored.3–5
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 7Torkelson doubled to center, Greene scored.3–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 33–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 23–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 7McKinstry homered to right (373 feet).3–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 7Sheets doubled to center, Benintendi scored, Burger scored and Moncada scored.3–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 20–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 2McKinstry hit sacrifice fly to center, Schoop scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 2Ibañez singled to right, Baddoo scored, Schoop to third.0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 54%
- Fair odds
- DET -114
- CHW +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.3 – 4.6 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +15 | CHW: Jesse Scholtens (no track record yet) · DET: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.74 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +31 Elo | DET 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.727th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.822nd of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −1.128th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 27th of 3010–18 | Road vs home | 11–1119th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHW 1–1 DET in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.