Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Zack ShortBatting1-1, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Matthew BoydPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Zack GreinkePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Witt Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Garcia scored.6–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 8Melendez singled to right, Olivares scored.6–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 8Schoop doubled to center, Short scored and Torkelson scored.6–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 24–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 7Pasquantino singled to right, Bradley Jr. scored, Garcia to third.4–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 6Short homered to left center (416 feet), Greene scored and Vierling scored.4–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Melendez grounded into fielder's choice to first, Witt Jr. scored, Olivares out at second, Pratto to third.1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Greene homered to right center (440 feet).1–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Royals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 52%
- Fair odds
- KC -105
- DET +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.5 – 4.6 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +11 | DET: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · KC: Zack Greinke: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +17 Elo | KC 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 3.926th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.328th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −1.429th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 3011–15 | Road vs home | 7–1829th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 1–1 KC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.