Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Michael MasseyBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Max CastilloPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
White Sox- Luis Robert Jr.Batting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Lance LynnPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Benintendi singled to center, Anderson scored, González to second.2–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–4
- 5Benintendi hit sacrifice fly to left, González scored.2–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 5González tripled to right, Frazier scored and Sheets scored.2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Robert Jr. homered to right center (384 feet).2–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 2Massey homered to right (405 feet), Olivares scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
White Sox 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 51%
- Fair odds
- CHW -113
- KC +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.5 – 4.8 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −14 | KC: Carlos Hernandez: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · CHW: Lance Lynn: team allows 0.70 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +9 Elo | CHW 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 28th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 5.429th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.4 | Margin | −1.228th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 27th of 308–16 | Road vs home | 11–1322nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 3–3 CHW in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.