Kansas City Royals at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Mike MayersPitching2.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Padres- Jake CronenworthBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yu DarvishPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Bogaerts reached on infield single to second, Kim scored, Odor to third.4–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 14–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 6Carpenter scored on a balk, Odor to second on a balk, Kim to third on a balk.4–2
- 6Carpenter scored on a balk, Odor to second on a balk, Kim to third on a balk.4–2
- 6Garcia doubled to center, Melendez scored.4–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 6Pasquantino homered to right (379 feet), Witt Jr. scored.3–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 31–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 5Cronenworth homered to right (360 feet).1–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 4Melendez doubled to left, Witt Jr. scored.1–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 57%
- Fair odds
- SD -120
- KC +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.0 – 4.4 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +3 | KC: Carlos Hernandez (no track record yet) · SD: Yu Darvish: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +49 Elo | SD 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 54.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.926th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.4 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 27th of 307–14 | Road vs home | 9–1224th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 1–1 SD in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.